Sovereign default risk in OECD countries : Do global factors matter?

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Borradores de Economía; No. 996

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2017-05-12

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2017-05-12

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eng
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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Abstract

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk for a group of 23 OECD countries using quarterly data spanning the period between 2000:Q1 and 2016:Q3. Applying the recently developed panel dynamic heterogeneous common correlated effects estimator of Chudik and Pesaran [2015] our study innovates in considering potential endogeneity issues and cross-sectional dependence. We control for global risk appetite and country risk ratings. The results show that common factors are the main drivers of solvency risk for our set of countries. Specially relevant, we find that macroeconomic determinants are not significant predictors of long-term sovereign spreads.

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Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0.

Este documento ha sido depositado por parte de el(los) autor(es) bajo la siguiente constancia de depósito