Exchange rate pass-through in the Colombian car market

Carranza, Juan Esteban; González-Ramírez, Alejandra Ximena; Vélez-Velásquez, Juan Sebastián; Pérez, Alex

Exchange rate pass-through in the Colombian car market

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Borradores de Economía; No. 1240

Date published

2023-06-20

Authors

Carranza, Juan Esteban
González-Ramírez, Alejandra Ximena
Vélez-Velásquez, Juan Sebastián
Pérez, Alex

Document language

eng

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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Abstract

The incomplete pass-through of exchange rates to prices is a well-documented phenomenon. Firms respond optimally to exchange rate shocks by adjusting margins and buying inputs from regions with more advantageous terms of trade. Consumers, in turn, substitute goods that become more expensive for relatively cheaper goods after an exchange rate shock. We use data from the market for new cars in Colombia to empirically analyze the determinants of incomplete pass- through after a large depreciation of the local currency. We estimate a structural oligopoly model that nests the optimal reactions of firms and consumers to as- sess their relative importance in explaining the lack of response of retail prices to the exchange rate shock. We find that, in relative terms, the most important factor explaining incomplete pass-through is consumer substitution, followed by strategic interaction between sellers.

Description

El pass-through incompleto de choques de tasa de cambio a precios minoristas es un fen ́omeno bien documentado. Ante un choque de tasa de cambio, las firmas re- sponden ́optimamente ajustando sus m ́argenes e importando bienes intermedios de regiones con t ́erminos de intercambio m ́as favorables. Los consumidores, a su vez, sustituyen bienes que se encarecen por bienes relativamente m ́as baratos. Usando datos del mercado de carros nuevos en Colombia, analizamos los determi- nantes de la incompletitud del pass-through luego de una gran depreciaci ́on de la moneda local. Estimamos un modelo estructural de oligopolio que anida las reac- ciones ́optimas de firmas y consumidores para medir su capacidad de explicar la poca respuesta de los precios minoristas ante el choque de tasa de cambio. Encon- tramos que el principal factor a la hora de explicar este pass-through incompleto es la sustituci ́on de los consumidores, seguido por la interacci ́on estrat ́egica entre vendedores.