Precios de activos e indicadores de alerta temprana

Gómez-González, Esteban; Rozo, Sandra

Precios de activos e indicadores de alerta temprana

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Temas de Estabilidad Financiera ; No. 27

Date published

2007-09-01

Date

2007-09

Authors

Gómez-González, Esteban
Rozo, Sandra

Document language

spa

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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Abstract

Asset price bubbles are amongst the most talked-about yet misunderstood topics in economics. Theoretical researchers debate between rational, nonrational or even non-existent bubbles, while empiricists tackle the issue with state-of-the-art econometric tools yielding mixed results. A bubble is usually defined as the component of asset prices that cannot be accounted for by fundamentals1. A rational bubble arises when agents are willing to pay a higher price than the \fundamental price" because they believe that they can sell the asset at an even higher price in the future (Gurkaynak (2005)). A nonrational bubble is defined as a rapid upward price movement, based on exaggerated beliefs about future outcomes (e.g. company earnings or the impact of a new technology), followed by a collapse (Meltzer (2003)).

Description

Se hace uso de información sobre crédito, inversión y precios de los activos financieros más relevantes con el objetivo de construir indicadores de alerta temprana, para el estudio de la estabilidad financiera.