Professional forecasters : how to understand and exploit them through a DSGE model

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Borradores de Economía; No. 664

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2011-08-10

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2011-08-10

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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Abstract

This paper derives a link between the forecasts of professional forecasters and a DSGE model. I show that the forecasts of a professional forecaster can be incorporated to the state space representation of the model by allowing the measurement error of th

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