Esquema de provisiones anticíclicas para Colombia

Martínez-Amaya, Óscar Gonzalo; Pineda, Fernando; Salamanca-Rojas, David M.

Esquema de provisiones anticíclicas para Colombia

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Temas de Estabilidad Financiera ; No. 10

Date published

2005-07-01

Date

2005-07

Authors

Martínez-Amaya, Óscar Gonzalo
Pineda, Fernando
Salamanca-Rojas, David M.

Document language

spa

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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Abstract

The financial system’s response to the various phases of the cycle is characterized by high credit growth during the upswing phase and its rationing during the downswing. This behavior is related to the financial system’s tendency to underestimate the credit risk during the upturn and to overestimate it during the downturn phase2 . This wrong perception of risk creates distortions in the incentives for financial institutions to lend, makes credit excessively volatile, which negatively affects corporate and investment funding, and conveys a climate of instability, thereby transmitting the instability to the real sector. Furthermore, financial institutions generate high profits during the cycle upswing, which are distributed among their stockholders, to be followed by a crisis during the downswing, with the ensuing possibilities of bankruptcy, state intervention, or government support at the expense of the national budget. Thus, this argues for the need to set up an anticyclical provisioning scheme to lower profit volatility throughout the economic cycle.

Description

Se intenta establecer el impacto que tendría un sistema de provisiones anticíclicas parecido al que existe actualmente en España para el caso colombiano. Con métodos de simulación analiza los costos para las entidades de crédito y hace un estudio de cómo amortiguar las pérdidas durante fases adversas.