Monetary Policy Report - July 2023

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dc.audiencePolicymakerseng
dc.audienceResearcherseng
dc.audienceStudentseng
dc.audienceTeacherseng
dc.coverage.sucursalBogotáspa
dc.creatorOffice of the Deputy Technical Governorspa
dc.creatorOffice for Monetary Policy and Economic Informationspa
dc.creatorInflation Sectionspa
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Programming Sectionspa
dc.creatorAdvisors and Associate Researcher with the Programming and Inflation Departmentspa
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Modeling Departmentspa
dc.creatorConsultant and Researchers associated with the Macro-Economic Models Departmentspa
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-06T20:37:14Zspa
dc.date.available2023-09-06T20:37:14Zspa
dc.date.created2023-09-06spa
dc.description.abstractIn the second quarter of 2023, total annual infation fell to 12.1% and the rise of core infation halted and stood at 10.5%; both measures were lower than those forecasted in the April Report but remained well above the 3.0% target. The aggregate effects of monetary policy actions and the unwinding of certain shocks that affected prices will contribute towards bringing infation closer to the target in 2024. By component, the annual variations in the CPI for food and the CPI excluding food and regulated items have lessened more markedly than anticipated by the Central Bank’s technical staff, underlying the decline in annual infation. However, prices of regulated items and services continued to rise, nonetheless at a slower pace than expected, particularly in the case of services. For these two groups, price indexation mechanisms have resulted in the transmission of some transitory increases in certain CPI sub-components (e.g., food) to other items (e.g., rents, utilities, etc.), thus generating a greater persistence of already high infation. This is acerbated by the gasoline price increases required to correct the defcit of the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (Fondo de Estabilización de los Precios de los Combustibles, FEPC). Consequently, the CPI for regulated items forecast increased going forward relative to the April Report given the higher gasoline price adjustments announced by the Government. For the remaining items (food, goods, and services), the forecasted trajectory declined due partly to the lower-than-estimated infation, a more notable reduction in the international prices of some food items and freight costs, lower exchange rate and cost pressures on prices, and a faster than anticipated decrease in excess demand. This occurs in a contractionary monetary policy environment that aims to reduce infation towards rates close to the 3.0% target by the end of 2024. Against this background, headline infation for yearend 2023 is forecast at 9.0% (formerly 9.5%) and 3.5% for yearend 2024 (previously 3.4%) (Graph 1.1). In the same timeframes, the core infation forecast has been revised downward from 8.9% to 7.9%, and from 3.9% to 3.7%, respectively (Graph 1.2). These projections are subject to high uncertainty, especially surrounding future behavior of international fnancing conditions and the exchange rate, fuctuations in domestic demand, the possible occurrence of the El Niño natural climate phenomenon, and future decisions regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices.eng
dc.format.extent57 páginas : gráficas, tablasspa
dc.format.mimetypePDFspa
dc.identifier.handlehttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/10693spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/10693spa
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherBanco de la República de Colombiaspa
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2023spa
dc.relation.ispartofReportes, Boletines e Informesspa
dc.relation.issn2711 - 1164spa
dc.relation.isversionofMonetary Policy Report - July 2023spa
dc.relation.portalhttps://www.banrep.gov.co/es/publicaciones-investigaciones/informe-politica-monetaria/julio-2023spa
dc.relation.shortdoihttps://doi.org/ksk2spa
dc.rights.HabeasDatos personales: El(los) autor(es) ha(n) incluido sus datos personales (nombres, correo electrónico, cargo, entre otros) en el Reporte, informe o boletín y por consiguiente, manifiesta(n) que mediante el diligenciamiento y registro de sus datos personales autoriza(n) al Banco de la República el tratamiento (recolección, almacenamiento, uso, circulación o supresión) de todos los datos suministrados con la finalidad de adelantar la publicación del documento en el Repositorio Institucional, dar a conocer su medio de contacto para fines académicos y divulgativos, así como para la construcción de indicadores y estadísticas para el seguimiento y control de las actividades de divulgación del Portal del Banco de la República. Para tal fin, se informa que el tratamiento de los datos personales se realizará de acuerdo con las políticas o lineamientos generales disponibles en http://www.banrep.gov.co/proteccion-datos-personales, en la sección “Protección de Datos Personales - Habeas Data”.spa
dc.rights.ObjetoObjeto de publicación: La obra de mí (nuestra) autoría tiene por objeto ser publicada en el Portal del Banco de la República e incluirla en el Repositorio Institucional de esa misma entidad. La obra podrá consistir en documento escrito, audiovisual, audio, gráfico, fotográfico, infográfico, podcasts, etc., y podrá estar en cualquier formato conocido o por conocerse.spa
dc.rights.accessRightsOpen Accesseng
dc.rights.ccAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0spa
dc.rights.spaAcceso abiertospa
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/eng
dc.subjectBancos centralesspa
dc.subjectCrecimiento económico ;spa
dc.subjectAlimentosspa
dc.subjectPreciosspa
dc.subjectColombiaspa
dc.subject.brtema5. Precios, inflación y política monetariaspa
dc.subject.jelE31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflationeng
dc.subject.jelE39 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Othereng
dc.subject.jelE30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Generaleng
dc.subject.jelspaE31 - Nivel de precios; Inflación; Deflaciónspa
dc.subject.jelspaE39 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Otrosspa
dc.subject.jelspaE30 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Generalidadesspa
dc.subject.keywordCentral banksspa
dc.subject.keywordEconomic growtheng
dc.subject.keywordFoodseng
dc.subject.keywordPriceseng
dc.subject.keywordColombiaeng
dc.subject.lembBanco de la República (Bogotá) -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembInflación -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembPolítica monetaria -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembBalanza de pagos -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembProducto interno bruto -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.titleMonetary Policy Report - July 2023spa
dc.typeReporteng
dc.type.hasversionPublished Versioneng
dc.type.spaInformespa

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Informe de Política Monetaria (anterior Informe sobre Inflación)