Monetary Policy Report - January 2021

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dc.audiencePolicymakerseng
dc.audienceResearcherseng
dc.audienceStudentseng
dc.audienceTeacherseng
dc.coverage.sucursalBogotáspa
dc.creatorOffice of the Deputy Technical Governoreng
dc.creatorVargas-Herrera, Hernandospa
dc.creatorOffice for Monetary Policy and Economic Informationeng
dc.creatorOspina-Tejeiro, Juan Josespa
dc.creatorProgramming and Inflation Departmenteng
dc.creatorHuertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonsospa
dc.creatorInflation Sectioneng
dc.creatorCobo-Serna, Adolfo Leónspa
dc.creatorCaicedo-García, Edgarspa
dc.creatorCote-Barón, Juan Pablospa
dc.creatorMartínez-Cortés, Nicolásspa
dc.creatorRojas, Carlos Danielspa
dc.creatorPulido-Mahecha, Karen L.spa
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Programming Sectioneng
dc.creatorGaravito-Acosta, Aarón Levispa
dc.creatorCalderón, Luis Hernánspa
dc.creatorGonzález, Camilospa
dc.creatorSalazar-Diaz, Andreaspa
dc.creatorGaleano, Frankyspa
dc.creatorGaitán-Maldonado, Celinaspa
dc.creatorRestrepo-Ángel, Sergiospa
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Modeling Departmenteng
dc.creatorHamann-Salcedo, Franzspa
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Modeling Departmenteng
dc.creatorPérez-Amaya, Julián Mauriciospa
dc.creatorRomero-Chamorro, José Vicentespa
dc.creatorForero, Santiagospa
dc.creatorMoreno, Nicolásspa
dc.creatorDe Castro, Marcelaspa
dc.creatorNaranjo, Saraspa
dc.creatorConsultant and Researchers associated with the Macro-Economic Models Departmenteng
dc.creatorGuarín-López, Alexanderspa
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-03T20:08:36Zspa
dc.date.available2021-03-03T20:08:36Zspa
dc.date.created2021-03-03spa
dc.description.abstractMacroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.eng
dc.description.abstractBox I. Macroeconomic Expectations: Analysis of the Monthly Survey of Economic Analyst Expectations. Authors: Hernando Vargas, Alexander Guarín, Anderson Grajales, César Anzola, Jonathan Muñozeng
dc.format.extent53 páginas : gráficas, tablasspa
dc.format.mimetypePDFspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/9983spa
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherBanco de la República de Colombiaspa
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1.-2021spa
dc.relation.ispartofReportes, Boletines e Informesspa
dc.relation.issn2711 - 2128spa
dc.relation.isversionofMonetary Policy Report - January 2021
dc.relation.shortdoihttps://doi.org/fx2rspa
dc.rights.HabeasDatos personales: El(los) autor(es) ha(n) incluido sus datos personales (nombres, correo electrónico, cargo, entre otros) en el Reporte, informe o boletín y por consiguiente, manifiesta(n) que mediante el diligenciamiento y registro de sus datos personales autoriza(n) al Banco de la República el tratamiento (recolección, almacenamiento, uso, circulación o supresión) de todos los datos suministrados con la finalidad de adelantar la publicación del documento en el Repositorio Institucional, dar a conocer su medio de contacto para fines académicos y divulgativos, así como para la construcción de indicadores y estadísticas para el seguimiento y control de las actividades de divulgación del Portal del Banco de la República. Para tal fin, se informa que el tratamiento de los datos personales se realizará de acuerdo con las políticas o lineamientos generales disponibles en http://www.banrep.gov.co/proteccion-datos-personales, en la sección “Protección de Datos Personales - Habeas Data”.spa
dc.rights.ObjetoObjeto de publicación: La obra de mí (nuestra) autoría tiene por objeto ser publicada en el Portal del Banco de la República e incluirla en el Repositorio Institucional de esa misma entidad. La obra podrá consistir en documento escrito, audiovisual, audio, gráfico, fotográfico, infográfico, podcasts, etc., y podrá estar en cualquier formato conocido o por conocerse.spa
dc.rights.accessRightsOpen Accesseng
dc.rights.ccAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0spa
dc.rights.spaAcceso abiertospa
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/eng
dc.subjectBancos centralesspa
dc.subjectCrecimiento económicospa
dc.subjectAlimentosspa
dc.subjectPreciosspa
dc.subjectColombiaspa
dc.subject.jelE31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflationeng
dc.subject.jelE39 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Othereng
dc.subject.jelE30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Generaleng
dc.subject.jelspaE31 - Nivel de precios; Inflación; Deflaciónspa
dc.subject.jelspaE39 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Otrosspa
dc.subject.jelspaE30 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Generalidadesspa
dc.subject.keywordCentral bankseng
dc.subject.keywordEconomic growtheng
dc.subject.keywordFoodseng
dc.subject.keywordPriceseng
dc.subject.keywordColombiaeng
dc.subject.lembBanco de la República (Bogotá) -- 2021 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembInflación -- Colombia -- 2021 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembPolítica monetaria -- Colombia -- 2021 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembBalanza de pagos -- Colombia -- 2021 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembProducto interno bruto -- Colombia -- 2021 -- Informesspa
dc.titleMonetary Policy Report - January 2021eng
dc.typeReporteng
dc.type.hasversionPublished Versioneng
dc.type.spaInformespa
local.descargahttps://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1.-2021eng

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