Monetary Policy Report - October 2020

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dc.audiencePolicymakerseng
dc.audienceResearcherseng
dc.audienceStudentseng
dc.audienceTeacherseng
dc.coverage.sucursalBogotáspa
dc.creatorOffice of the Deputy Technical Governor
dc.creatorVargas-Herrera, Hernando
dc.creatorOffice for Monetary Policy and Economic Information
dc.creatorOspina-Tejeiro, Juan Jose
dc.creatorProgramming and Inflation Department
dc.creatorHuertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso
dc.creatorInflation Section
dc.creatorCobo-Serna, Adolfo León
dc.creatorCaicedo-García, Edgar
dc.creatorMartínez-Cortés, Nicolás
dc.creatorRojas, Carlos Daniel
dc.creatorPulido, Karen
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Programming Section
dc.creatorGaravito-Acosta, Aarón Levi
dc.creatorCalderón, Luis Hernán
dc.creatorGonzález, Camilo
dc.creatorSalazar-Diaz, Andrea
dc.creatorAdvisors and Associate Researcher with the Programming and Inflation Department
dc.creatorGaitán-Maldonado, Celina
dc.creatorRestrepo-Ángel, Sergio
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Modeling Department
dc.creatorHamann-Salcedo, Franz
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Modeling Department
dc.creatorPérez-Amaya, Julián Mauricio
dc.creatorRomero-Chamorro, José Vicente
dc.creatorForero, Santiago
dc.creatorMoreno, Nicolás
dc.creatorDe Castro, Marcela
dc.creatorNaranjo, Sara
dc.creatorConsultant and Researchers associated with the Macro-Economic Models Department
dc.creatorGuarín-López, Alexander
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-02T17:21:50Zspa
dc.date.available2021-02-02T17:21:50Zspa
dc.date.created2021-02-02spa
dc.description.abstractRecent data suggest that the technical staff’s appraisals of the condition and development of economic activity, inflation and the labor market have been in line with current trends, marked by a decline in demand and the persistence of ample excess productive capacity. A significant projected fall in output materialized in the second quarter, contributing to a decline in inflation below the 3% target and reflected in a significant deterioration of the labor market. A slow recovery in output and employment is expected to continue for the remainder of 2020 and into next year, alongside growing inflation that should remain below the target. The Colombian economy is likely to undergo a significant recession in 2020 (GDP contraction of 7.6%), though this may be less severe than projected in the previous report (-8.5%). Output is expected to have begun a slow recovery in the second half of this year, though it is not projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 amid significant global uncertainty. The output decline in the first half of 2020 was less severe than anticipated, thanks to an upward revision in first-quarter GDP and a smaller contraction in the second quarter (-15.5%) than had been projected (-16.5%). Available economic indicators suggest an annual decline in GDP in the third quarter of around 9%. No significant acceleration of COVID-19 cases that would imply a tightening of social distancing measures is presumed for the remainder of this year or in 2021. In that context, a gradual opening of the economy would be expected to continue, with supply in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic recovering slowly as restrictions on economic activity continue to be relaxed. On the spending side, an improvement in consumer confidence, suppressed demand for goods and services, low interest rates, and higher expected levels of foreign demand should contribute to a recovery in output. A low base of comparison would also help explain the expected increase in GDP in 2021. Based on the conditions laid out above, economic growth in 2020 is expected to be between -9% and -6.5%, with a central value of -7.6%. Growth in 2021 is projected to be between 3% and 7%, with a central value of 4.6% (Graph 1.1). Upward revisions compared to the July report take into account a lower-than-expected fall in first-semester growth and a somewhat faster recovery in the third quarter in some sectors. The forecast intervals for 2020 and 2021 growth tightened somewhat but continue to reflect a high degree of uncertainty over theevolution of the pandemic, the easures required to deal with it, and their effects on global and domestic economic activity.eng
dc.description.abstractBox 1. Evaluation of the Predictive Capacity of Expected Inflation Measures. Authors: César Anzola-Bravo, Anderson Grajales-Olarte, Alexander Guarín-López, Julián Camilo Mateus-Gamboa, Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez, Carlos Andrés Quicazán-Moreno, Juan Sebastián Rojas-Moreno, Cristhian Hernando Ruiz-Cardozoeng
dc.description.abstractBox 2. Literature Review: Weighing the Drivers of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Market Economies. Authors: Andrés Sánchez-Jabbaeng
dc.format.extent53 páginas : gráficas, tablasspa
dc.format.mimetypePDFspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/9975spa
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherBanco de la República de Colombiaspa
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr4.-2020spa
dc.relation.ispartofReportes, Boletines e Informesspa
dc.relation.isversionofMonetary Policy Report - October 2020eng
dc.relation.shortdoihttps://doi.org/fs5jspa
dc.rights.HabeasDatos personales: El(los) autor(es) ha(n) incluido sus datos personales (nombres, correo electrónico, cargo, entre otros) en el Reporte, informe o boletín y por consiguiente, manifiesta(n) que mediante el diligenciamiento y registro de sus datos personales autoriza(n) al Banco de la República el tratamiento (recolección, almacenamiento, uso, circulación o supresión) de todos los datos suministrados con la finalidad de adelantar la publicación del documento en el Repositorio Institucional, dar a conocer su medio de contacto para fines académicos y divulgativos, así como para la construcción de indicadores y estadísticas para el seguimiento y control de las actividades de divulgación del Portal del Banco de la República. Para tal fin, se informa que el tratamiento de los datos personales se realizará de acuerdo con las políticas o lineamientos generales disponibles en http://www.banrep.gov.co/proteccion-datos-personales, en la sección “Protección de Datos Personales - Habeas Data”.spa
dc.rights.ObjetoObjeto de publicación: La obra de mí (nuestra) autoría tiene por objeto ser publicada en el Portal del Banco de la República e incluirla en el Repositorio Institucional de esa misma entidad. La obra podrá consistir en documento escrito, audiovisual, audio, gráfico, fotográfico, infográfico, podcasts, etc., y podrá estar en cualquier formato conocido o por conocerse.spa
dc.rights.accessRightsOpen Accesseng
dc.rights.ccAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0spa
dc.rights.spaAcceso abiertospa
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/eng
dc.subjectBancos centralesspa
dc.subjectPreciosspa
dc.subjectViviendaspa
dc.subjectDesempleospa
dc.subjectColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordCentral bankseng
dc.subject.keywordPriceseng
dc.subject.keywordHousingeng
dc.subject.keywordInvestmentseng
dc.subject.keywordUnemploymenteng
dc.subject.keywordColombiaeng
dc.titleMonetary Policy Report - October 2020eng
dc.title.alternativeInforme de Política Monetaria - Octubre 2020spa
dc.typeReporteng
dc.type.hasversionPublished Versioneng
dc.type.spaInformespa
local.descargahttps://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr4.-2020eng

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Informe de Política Monetaria (anterior Informe sobre Inflación)