Financial Stability Report - First Half of 2023

Office of the Deputy Technical Governor; Vargas-Herrera, Hernando; Office for Monetary Operations and International Investments; Murcia, Andres; Financial Stability Department; Quicazan-Moreno, Carlos Andrés; Liquidity Support and Risk Control Section; Patiño, Lina; Systemic Risk Surveillance Section; Mariño-Martínez, Juan Sebastián; Cely, Jorge; Chipatecua, Orlando; Clavijo-Ramírez, Felipe; Cuesta-Mora, Diego; Escobar-Villarraga, Mariana; Gomez, Camilo; Gualtero-Briceño, Daniela; Meneses-González, María Fernanda; Narváez, Alida; Piñeros, Hernán; Pirateque-Niño, Javier Eliecer; Rodríguez-Novoa, Daniela; Rozada Najar, Angie; Sánchez-Quinto, Camilo Eduardo; Sarmiento-Paipilla, Néstor Miguel; Yanquen, Eduardo

Financial Stability Report - First Half of 2023

Box 1: A Measurement of the Level of Negative Foreign Exchange Mismatches of Real Sector Companies in Colombia in 2022 (797.16 KB)

Box 2: Indicator of Cybernetic Risk (737.64 KB)

Box 3: Financial Stress in the U.S. Banking System and a Stress Test of Credit Institutions’ Capital Adequacy (571.82 KB)

Financial Stability Report - First Half of 2023

Date published

2024-09-04

ISSN

1692 - 4029

Document language

eng

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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

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Banco de la República’s main goal is to preserve the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy that is intended to stabilize output and employment at long-term sustainable levels. Properly meeting the goal assigned to the Bank by the 1991 Constitution critically depends on preserving financial stability. This is understood to be a general condition in which the financial system channels domestic savings and evaluates and manages the financial risks in a way that facilitates the performance of the economy and efficient allocation of resources while, at the same time, it is able to, on its own, absorb, dissipate, and mitigate the appearance of risks that may arise as a result of adverse events. Banco de la República’s Financial Stability Report provides a diagnosis of the financial system’s and its debtors’ recent performance and indicates the main risks and vulnerabilities that could have an effect on the stability of the Colombian economy. The objective is to share this information with the financial market participants and the public and encourage public debate on trends and risks that affect the system. The results presented here also serve the monetary authority as a basis for making decisions that will enhance financial stability. The analysis presented in this edition of the Report makes it possible to conclude that the Colombian financial system has liquidity and capital adequacy levels that are not only above those required by internationally accepted parameters but would even be sufficient to face the occurrence of extreme low-probability risks. In particular, during the last six months, the aggregate capital adequacy of credit institutions rose 22 basis points and reached 18.1% in February 2023. The liquidity coverage ratio indicator and the net stable funding ratio, in turn, were 202.0% and 111% and thus well above the regulatory minimums of 100%. The period of analysis in this Report includes the period of stress that occurred in the U.S. regional bank segment and at Credit Suisse and caused nervousness regarding possible risks to global financial stability. The characteristics and risks that generated problems in those entities are analyzed in this Report and the Colombian financial system is evaluated considering different sources of vulnerability. Some characteristics that protect the Colombian financial system are: (i) a cautious balance sheet structure on both the asset and liability sides of the entities; (ii) the widespread practice of valuing the investment portfolio at market prices, and (iii) the appropriate management of liquidity risk. In line with a higher interest-rate scenario and a slowdown in local economic activity, the credit growth rate has slowed down in recent months while there have been signs of deterioration in the loan portfolios. Credit, which had been exhibiting excessively high growth levels last year, especially in the consumer category, has slowed down while past-due and risky loans have rebounded. This is also driven mainly by the consumer portfolio which is reflecting the growth in risks assumed by financial institutions in previous quarters. In spite of the lower portfolio performance seen currently and projected for the future, the high level of household indebtedness in Colombia, especially in the consumer segment, continues to be considered a source of vulnerability for the Colombian financial system as was the case in the previous edition of this Report (see section 2.2.1). Nevertheless, the financial system continues to reflect soundness and stability: credit institutions (CIs) are keeping liquidity and capital adequacy indicators well above the minimums established by regulation while nonbanking financial institutions (NBFIs) have registered an increase in their profits.The adjustments in the monetary policy stance since September 2021, the effect of the macroprudential measures implemented by the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia (FSC) at the end of last year associated with a higher requirement in terms of loan loss provisions, and stricter conditions in the allocation of loans by CIs are behind the projection of a loan portfolio growth rate that is likely to continue declining in the coming months. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate sustainable flows of sufficient credit and liquidity funds, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system.