Monetary Policy Report - October 2024

dc.audiencePolicymakerseng
dc.audienceResearcherseng
dc.audienceStudentseng
dc.audienceTeacherseng
dc.creatorOffice of the Deputy Technical Governor
dc.creatorOffice for Monetary Policy and Economic Information
dc.creatorProgramming and Inflation Department
dc.creatorInflation Section
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Programming Section
dc.creatorMacroeconomic Modeling Department
dc.creatorForecasting Section
dc.creatorModels and Capacities Development Section
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-06T14:45:38Zspa
dc.date.available2024-11-06T14:45:38Zspa
dc.date.created2024-11-06spa
dc.descriptionInflation continues to decline, although it is still above the 3% target. Monetary policy measures and correcting factors that pushed prices up are helping inflation to continue approaching the target. Economic activity is recovering to a sustainable level, unemployment has decreased, and the external deficit continues to reduce. The monetary policy interest rate is compatible with inflation being close to the target by the end of 2025 and with the gradual recovery of economic growth. In the third quarter, headline inflation continued to decrease and is expected to continue doing so gradually to reach 3.0% by the end of 2025. In September, headline inflation decreased more than expected, standing at 5.8%, and it is projected to be 5.3% by the end of 2024. The decrease in the inflation projection is mainly due to the improvement in the supply of processed foods, lower adjustments in electricity and fuel prices, and declining international costs that favored the behavior of some goods prices. Service prices, particularly rents and food away from home, showed a slower pace of deceleration due, in part, to the effect of indexation. Inflation expectations show a downward trend over time, reinforcing a decreasing dynamic of inflation towards the target by the end of 2025. The expected decrease in inflation would continue to reflect the accumulated effects of monetary policy decisions and the correction of factors that pushed prices up in the past. The forecasts continue to face high uncertainty related to exchange rate variations, which are at the same time conditioned by volatility in international financial conditions and the challenges of fiscal adjustment in Colombia. Other relevant uncertainty factors are the pace of deceleration in the prices of some services such as rents, the behavior of food prices and some regulated goods and services, and the increase in the minimum wage for next year. Economic activity continues to show a recovery path compatible with the convergence of inflation to the 3% target. In 2024 and 2025, the Colombian economy is expected to grow by 1.9% and 2.9%, respectively. The Colombian economy has been gaining momentum throughout the year, a trend that is expected to continue over the course of the year. This recovery is mainly due to higher household consumption, supported by less restrictive monetary policy, better disposable income, and lower financial burden. A greater contribution from public civil works also explains the recovery. By 2025, the economy is expected to continue strengthening and reach a level close to its productive capacity, a behavior compatible with the convergence of inflation to the 3% target. This behavior would occur in the context of less restrictive domestic and foreign monetary policy. The unemployment rate remains low compared to the past, while employment has increased. Economic recovery and labor market resilience suggest that monetary policy decisions have contributed to sustainable growth and a reduction in inflation. Volatility in international financial conditions and the challenges of fiscal adjustment in Colombia are uncertainty factors for economic activity performance. The downward trend in inflation and its expectations has allowed the continued lowering of the monetary policy interest rate, which now stands at 9.75%. At its October meeting, the Board of Directors of the Banco de la República decided, by majority, to reduce the monetary policy interest rate by 50 basis points (bp), accumulating a reduction of 350 bp since December 2023. However, inflation and some of its expectations remain above the target, indicating the need to maintain a still contractionary monetary policy stance to bring inflation to its 3% target. Monetary policy decisions continue to support the sustainable recovery of economic growth and maintain the necessary prudence in light of persistent risks regarding inflation behavior. Box 1 - Evolución reciente del IPC de arriendos en Colombia (only in Spanish) Cárdenas, Julián; Rodríguez, Nicol Descargar PDF Box 2 - Expectativas de inflación y su grado de anclaje: ¿qué se puede inferir de las expectativas derivadas del mercado de deuda pública en Colombia? (only in Spanish) Muñoz-Martínez, Jonathan Alexander; Parra, Daniel Descargar PDF Box 3 - Comportamiento reciente de los ingresos externos por remesas recibidos en Colombia (only in Spanish) Sandoval-Herrera, Diego; Hernández-Peñaloza, Mateoeng
dc.format.extent4 páginas : gráficas, tablasspa
dc.format.mimetypePDFspa
dc.identifier.handlehttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/10983spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/10983spa
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherBanco de la República de Colombiaspa
dc.relation.anxdoi https://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr4.anex1-2024spa
dc.relation.anxshortdoihttps://doi.org/nq38spa
dc.relation.anxshortdoihttps://doi.org/nq2wspa
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr4-2024spa
dc.relation.ispartofReportes, Boletines e Informesspa
dc.relation.isversionofInforme de Política Monetaria - Octubre 2024spa
dc.relation.portalhttps://www.banrep.gov.co/en/publications-research/monetary-policy-report/october-2024eng
dc.relation.shortdoihttps://doi.org/nq35spa
dc.rights.HabeasDatos personales: El(los) autor(es) ha(n) incluido sus datos personales (nombres, correo electrónico, cargo, entre otros) en el Reporte, informe o boletín y por consiguiente, manifiesta(n) que mediante el diligenciamiento y registro de sus datos personales autoriza(n) al Banco de la República el tratamiento (recolección, almacenamiento, uso, circulación o supresión) de todos los datos suministrados con la finalidad de adelantar la publicación del documento en el Repositorio Institucional, dar a conocer su medio de contacto para fines académicos y divulgativos, así como para la construcción de indicadores y estadísticas para el seguimiento y control de las actividades de divulgación del Portal del Banco de la República. Para tal fin, se informa que el tratamiento de los datos personales se realizará de acuerdo con las políticas o lineamientos generales disponibles en http://www.banrep.gov.co/proteccion-datos-personales, en la sección “Protección de Datos Personales - Habeas Data”.spa
dc.rights.ObjetoObjeto de publicación: La obra de mí (nuestra) autoría tiene por objeto ser publicada en el Portal del Banco de la República e incluirla en el Repositorio Institucional de esa misma entidad. La obra podrá consistir en documento escrito, audiovisual, audio, gráfico, fotográfico, infográfico, podcasts, etc., y podrá estar en cualquier formato conocido o por conocerse.spa
dc.rights.accessRightsOpen Accesseng
dc.rights.ccAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0spa
dc.rights.spaAcceso abiertospa
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/eng
dc.subjectBancos centralesspa
dc.subjectCrecimiento económicospa
dc.subjectAlimentosspa
dc.subjectPreciosspa
dc.subjectColombiaspa
dc.subject.brtema5. Precios, inflación y política monetariaspa
dc.subject.brtema5. Precios, inflación y política monetariaspa
dc.subject.jelE31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflationeng
dc.subject.jelE39 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Othereng
dc.subject.jelE30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Generaleng
dc.subject.jelspaE31 - Nivel de precios; Inflación; Deflaciónspa
dc.subject.jelspaE39 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Otrosspa
dc.subject.jelspaE30 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Generalidadesspa
dc.subject.keywordCentral bankseng
dc.subject.keywordEconomic growtheng
dc.subject.keywordFoodseng
dc.subject.keywordPriceseng
dc.subject.lembBanco de la República (Bogotá) -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembInflación -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembPolítica monetaria -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembBalanza de pagos -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.subject.lembProducto interno bruto -- Colombia -- 2024 -- Informesspa
dc.titleMonetary Policy Report - October 2024eng
dc.typeReporteng
dc.type.hasversionPublished Versioneng
dc.type.spaInformespa

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Box 1.The recent behavior of the rent CPI in Colombia
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Box 2 Infation expectations and their degree of anchoring: what can be inferred from expectations obtained from Colombia’s public debt market?
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