Nowcasting economic activity with electronic payments data: A predictive modeling approach
Borradores de Economía; No. 1037
Date published
2018-02-12Date of last update
2018-02-12Document language
engMetadata
Show full item recordAlternative metrics
Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva. The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
Abstract
Economic activity nowcasting (i.e. making current-period estimates) is convenient because
most traditional measures of economic activity come with substantial lags. We aim at
nowcasting ISE, a short-term economic activity indicator in Colombia. Inputs are ISE’s lags
and a dataset of payments made with electronic transfers and cheques among individuals,
firms, and the central government. Under a predictive modeling approach, we employ a nonlinear
autoregressive exogenous neural network model. Results suggest that our choice of
inputs and predictive method enable us to nowcast economic activity with fair accuracy.
Also, we validate that electronic payments data significantly reduces the nowcast error of a
benchmark non-linear autoregressive neural network model. Nowcasting economic activity
from electronic payment instruments data not only contributes to agents’ decision making
and economic modeling, but also supports new research paths on how to use retail payments
data for appending current models.
JEL Codes
Subject
Keywords
URI
https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6997https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/6997
https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1037
https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1037.html
Collections
- Borradores de Economía [1254]
Seleccionar año de consulta:
