2017-03-152017-03-152017-03-152017-03-15https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6299We test current account sustainability based on the framework developed by Hakkio and Rush [1991] and Husted [1992] using a two-regime threshold vector error correction model. This methodology allows us to characterize short-run nonlinearities in the current account. We estimate the model for four Latin American economies: Chile, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. We find a long-run relationship between the current account components, which implies strong sustainability for Chile and Mexico and weak sustainability for Colombia and Brazil. For the first two countries, the predominant regime is associated with a current account surplus. In contrast, for Colombia and Brazil, the prevailing regime corresponds to a situation in which there is a long- run deficit. In general, the impulse response analysis shows that expenditure and income shocks have positive and significant responses in the predominant regime for both series.35 páginas : gráficas, tablasPDFengOpen AccessCorrección de errores de vectorSostenibilidad de la balanza comercialFunción de respuesta de impulso generalizadaWorking PaperC32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space ModelsC52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and SelectionF32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital MovementsThreshold vector error correctionCurrent account sustainabilityGeneralized impulse response functionBalanza de pagos -- ChileBalanza de pagos -- BrasilBalanza de pagos -- ColombiaBalanza de pagos -- MéxicoMacroeconomía -- ChileMacroeconomía -- BrasilMacroeconomía -- ColombiaMacroeconomía -- MéxicoAcceso abiertoAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0F32 - Ajustes de la balanza por cuenta corriente; Movimientos de capital a corto plazoC32 - Modelos de series temporales; Regresiones cuantiles dinámicas; Modelos dinámicos de tratamiento; procesos de difusión; representación de espacios de estadosC52 - Evaluación, contraste y selección de modelosLas opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/6299