1998-12-011998-12-011998-12-011998-12https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/4075The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is model as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation uncertainty. The performance of monetary rules is studied both with certainty on the output gap values as well as with estimation uncertainty.30 páginas : gráficas, tablasPDFengOpen AccessIncertidumbreCiclos económicosCurva de PhillipsMonedaColombiaArticleG00 - Financial Economics: GeneralE32 - Business Fluctuations; CyclesE58 - Central Banks and Their PoliciesUncertaintyEconomic cyclesPhillips curveMoneyColombiaMecanismos de transmisión monetaria -- ColombiaPolítica monetaria -- ColombiaInflación -- ColombiaProducto potencial -- ColombiaAcceso abiertoAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0E58 - Bancos centrales y sus políticasE32 - Fluctuaciones económicas; CiclosG00 - Economía financiera: Generalidadeshttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/4075