2025-12-112025-12-112025-12-11https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/11318During the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), global financial markets exhibited greater stability than in the previous quarter, supported by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy rate cut and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance in the United States (U.S.). These developments boosted risk appetite and contributed to an appreciation of financial assets, particularly across developed and emerging economies. In Latin America, inflation remained above Central Bank targets, and monetary policy decisions were mixed. In Colombia, Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia, BanRep) maintained its monetary policy rate at 9.25%, while the Colombian peso (COP) recorded the strongest appreciation among emerging-market currencies. In the local market, TES (Colombian government bonds) appreciated amid greater liquidity, and the MSCI Colcap index extended its upward trend, supported by robust corporate earnings. The international environment was characterized by lower interest rates in the U.S. and a moderation of global risks compared to the previous quarter. - The Fed lowered its policy rate, reinforcing expectations of further interest rate cuts in the US. - International trade tensions eased and global growth forecasts improved, although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned that growth remains below pre-pandemic levels. - Inflation remained above target levels in major developed economies, prompting central banks to maintain a cautious stance. - Global financial conditions remained supportive, driven by increased portfolio investment flows into emerging markets. Colombia’s risk perception indicators improved, although fiscal challenges persist. - Colombia’s risk perception indicators improved vis-a-vis other emerging economies, reversing the deterioration observed in the previous quarter. - Despite this progress, risk levels remain elevated relative to its peers, reflecting ongoing fiscal and political uncertainty. - Growth expectations held steady for 2025, although they were slightly revised downward for 2026 due to weaker investment dynamics. Across Latin America, inflation remained above target in most countries, while Central Banks adopted heterogeneous policy stances. - In Colombia, inflation rose again to levels similar to those at the end of 2024, remaining above BanRep’s target. - BanRep kept its monetary policy rate unchanged at 9.25%, a decision analysts deemed prudent given the inflation rebound and ongoing fiscal challenges. - In the region, Mexico, Peru, and Chile lowered their policy rates, whereas Colombia and Brazil kept theirs unchanged. - Markets expect BanRep to hold its policy rate for the remainder of 2025, with gradual cuts likely beginning in 2026. Debt markets benefited from the global environment of lower interest rates and greater risk appetite. - US Treasury bonds appreciated amid expectations of lower rates, while Latin American sovereign bonds also posted widespread gains. - In Colombia, TES appreciated in a context of ample liquidity, higher demand expectations from public entities, and lower market volatility. - During the quarter, the Ministry of Finance executed treasury transactions with foreign banks totaling USD 9.4 billion and issued EUR 4.1 billion in bonds in the European market. - Despite the positive performance, challenges related to fiscal sustainability persist. The COP led appreciations among emerging-market currencies, supported by its appeal for investment strategies and government treasury operations. - The US dollar exhibited a volatile performance, ending the quarter slightly stronger. - In the region, most currencies appreciated due to wider interest rate differentials with the US and the recovery of some commodity prices. - The COP appreciated against the US dollar, driven by foreign currency supply from various market participants and expected monetization associated with Government financing operations with international banks. - The COP volatility declined, and FX market liquidity improved. Global stock markets continued their upward trend, driven by strong corporate earnings and optimism surrounding US monetary policy, while commodity prices recorded a mixed performance. - Equity indexes in developed economies reached new record highs, led by the technology sector. - In Latin America, major stock indexes also advanced, reflecting increased appetite for risk assets. - In Colombia, the MSCI Colcap index continued to increase , supported by solid corporate earnings. - Oil prices declined amid higher supply and weaker global demand, whereas precious metals reached new record highs during the quarter, reflecting an increased demand for safe-haven assets.5 páginas: imágenes, gráficosPDFengOpen AccessMercado financieroInstituciones financierasColombiaReportG1 - General Financial MarketsG2 - Financial Institutions and ServicesFinancial institutionsFinancial marketsColombiaSector monetario y financiero -- ColombiaEstabilidad financiera -- ColombiaAcceso abiertoAtribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0G1 - Mercados financieros en generalG2 - Instituciones y servicios financierosObjeto de publicación: La obra de mí (nuestra) autoría tiene por objeto ser publicada en el Portal del Banco de la República e incluirla en el Repositorio Institucional de esa misma entidad. La obra podrá consistir en documento escrito, audiovisual, audio, gráfico, fotográfico, infográfico, podcasts, etc., y podrá estar en cualquier formato conocido o por conocerse.Datos personales: El(los) autor(es) ha(n) incluido sus datos personales (nombres, correo electrónico, cargo, entre otros) en el Reporte, informe o boletín y por consiguiente, manifiesta(n) que mediante el diligenciamiento y registro de sus datos personales autoriza(n) al Banco de la República el tratamiento (recolección, almacenamiento, uso, circulación o supresión) de todos los datos suministrados con la finalidad de adelantar la publicación del documento en el Repositorio Institucional, dar a conocer su medio de contacto para fines académicos y divulgativos, así como para la construcción de indicadores y estadísticas para el seguimiento y control de las actividades de divulgación del Portal del Banco de la República. Para tal fin, se informa que el tratamiento de los datos personales se realizará de acuerdo con las políticas o lineamientos generales disponibles en http://www.banrep.gov.co/proteccion-datos-personales, en la sección “Protección de Datos Personales - Habeas Data”.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/113188. Sector monetario y financiero