Credit risk stress testing : an exercise for colombian banks

Cabrera-Rodríguez, Wilmar Alexander; Gutiérrez-Rueda, Javier; Mendoza-Gutiérrez, Juan Carlos

Credit risk stress testing : an exercise for colombian banks

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Temas de Estabilidad Financiera ; No. 73

Date published

2012-09-01

Date

2012-09

Authors

Cabrera-Rodríguez, Wilmar Alexander
Gutiérrez-Rueda, Javier
Mendoza-Gutiérrez, Juan Carlos

Document language

eng

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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Abstract

In this paper we seek to assess the ability of banks to withstand the effects of an increase in credit risk as a result of changes in the macroeconomic environment. To do so we estimate a credit risk model for each loan type as a function of four macroeconomic variables commonly used in the literature. Then, we forecast the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPL) and total loans in a stressed scenario in a time span of 8 quarters. Using these results, we quantify the effects of the macroeconomic shock on bank’s performance indicators, such as the NPL ratio, the return on assets, and the capital adequacy ratio. The results suggest that most Colombian banks are able to withstand a large shock to economic activity. We also perform a reverse stress testing to quantify how much NPL should increase in order to bring the earnings before taxes to zero.