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Volatility Spillovers and the Global Financial Cycle Across Economies: Evidence from a Global Semi-Structural Model
dc.creator | Gómez-Pineda, Javier G. |
dc.date.created | 2017-09-05 |
dc.date.issued | 2020-03-03 |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6324 |
dc.description.abstract | The paper provides some evidence on the relevance of global uncertainty and risk aversion and the lesser importance of US interest rates for the global financial and business cycles. As framework, we use a global semi-structural model augmented with financial and trade inter-linkages. Financial interlinkages are modelled with proposed global uncertainty, global risk aversion and global financial cycle channels. Trade interlinkages are modelled with proposed value-chain trade equations. We find that global uncertainty and global risk aversion are, by far, the main volatility factors in all economies. Other volatility factors such as US interest rates, foreign interest rates and trade-related factors rarely explain shares of forecast error variance above one percent. |
dc.format.extent | 49 páginas : gráficas, tablas |
dc.format.mimetype | |
dc.language.iso | eng |
dc.publisher | Banco de la República de Colombia |
dc.relation.ispartof | Documentos de trabajo |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Borradores de Economía |
dc.relation.isversionof | Borradores de Economía; No. 1011 |
dc.rights.accessRights | Open Access |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
dc.subject | Ciclo financiero mundial |
dc.subject | Incertidumbre |
dc.subject | Aversión al riesgo |
dc.subject | Riesgo global |
dc.subject | Cadenas de valor global |
dc.subject | Ecuaciones comerciales de la cadena de valor |
dc.subject | Modelo semi-estructural global |
dc.title | Volatility Spillovers and the Global Financial Cycle Across Economies: Evidence from a Global Semi-Structural Model |
dc.type | Working Paper |
dc.subject.jel | E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies |
dc.subject.jel | Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy |
dc.subject.jel | E37 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Application |
dc.subject.jel | E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
dc.audience | Policymakers |
dc.audience | Researchers |
dc.audience | Students |
dc.audience | Teachers |
dc.subject.keyword | Global financial cycle |
dc.subject.keyword | Uncertainty |
dc.subject.keyword | Risk aversion |
dc.subject.keyword | Global risk |
dc.subject.keyword | Global value chains |
dc.subject.keyword | Value-chain trade equations |
dc.subject.keyword | Global semi-structural model |
dc.subject.lemb | Riesgo (Economía) |
dc.subject.lemb | Contagio (Crisis financiera) |
dc.subject.lemb | Tasas de interés -- Estados Unidos |
dc.subject.lemb | Riesgo país |
dc.subject.lemb | Crédito |
dc.subject.lemb | Volatilidad del consumo (Economía) |
dc.type.spa | Documentos de trabajo |
dc.rights.spa | Acceso abierto |
dc.rights.cc | Atribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 |
dc.subject.jelspa | E58 - Bancos centrales y sus políticas |
dc.subject.jelspa | Q43 - Energía y macroeconomía |
dc.subject.jelspa | E43 - Tipos de interés: determinación, estructura temporal y efectos |
dc.subject.jelspa | E37 - Precios, fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos: Predicción y simulación; Modelos y aplicación |
dc.type.hasversion | Published Version |
dc.coverage.sucursal | Bogotá |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Akerlof, George A., and Robert J. Shiller, 2009, Animal Spirits, Princeton University Press. Princeton NJ. |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Ammer, John, Michiel De Pooter, Christopher Erceg and Steven Kamin, 2016, Interna- tional Spillovers of Monetary Policy, IFDP Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 8. |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Aoki, K. J. Proudman and G. Vlieghe, 2002, House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a nancial accelerator approach, Bank of England, Working Paper 169. |
dc.relation.doi | https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1011 |
dc.rights.disclaimer | Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva. |
dc.relation.repec | https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1011.html |
dc.identifier.handle | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/6324 |
dc.creator.firma | Javier G. Gómez-Pineda |
dc.source.handleRepec | RePEc:bdr:borrec:1011 |
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