The maple bubble : a history of migration among canadian provinces
Borradores de Economía; No. 992
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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.
This study reports evidence of the existence of house price bubbles in several Canadian provinces around the recent global financial crisis. Using a wealth of monthly data for about a thirty-year period we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the bubble in Quebec transmitted to four other Canadian provinces. Using a recently developed migration test, we show evidence of time-varying transmission intensities. In all cases an inverted U-shape is encountered, suggesting that initially migrations gain strength and then decrease after a maximum point is reached. Interestingly, intensities increase significantly around the maximum point of the bubble in Quebec. Our results have important implications for the design of housing market policies.
- Borradores de Economía